Al Zawraa 3-2 Baghdad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iraq - Premier League, 21 Mar 2026

Al Zawraa
3-2 HT 3-1
Baghdad
📅21/03/2026 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Iraq - Premier League – 2025/2026

Al Zawraa vs Baghdad Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
70%
1.42
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
8%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.09
No
57%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
28%
X/2
3%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
3%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
70%
Home Win
66%
+3.3pp
22%
Draw
21%
+1.4pp
8%
Away Win
13%
-4.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.7pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Al Zawraa v Baghdad — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Zawraa EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Baghdad EU Bookmakers 16%
-6% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
1.57/0.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/2.24
-8% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +42% / -25%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
421 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 73%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –
POST-MATCH Al Zawraa vs Baghdad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Zawraa squeezed past Baghdad 3-2. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Al Zawraa as the likeliest winner at 70%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Al Zawraa vs Baghdad?

Al Zawraa 3-2 Baghdad in the Iraq - Premier League on 21/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Zawraa vs Baghdad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Zawraa win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split Al Zawraa 70%, draw 22%, Baghdad 8%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Zawraa) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Zawraa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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