Perth Glory 3-4 Western United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.19
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
38%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.96
Over 2.5
62%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.33
No
42%
3.05
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
7.44
2-3 Goals
38%
2.24
4-5 Goals
29%
2.43
6+ Goals
14%
4.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.0
1/2
7%
23.6
1/X
7%
11.85
X/1
14%
5.89
X/2
13%
6.77
X/X
11%
6.35
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.2
2/2
19%
3.64
2/X
6%
11.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.2 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.9pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.4pp
39%
Away Win
34%
+4.2pp
38%
Under 2.5
30%
+8.2pp
62%
Over 2.5
70%
-8.2pp
58%
BTTS Yes
71%
-12.8pp
42%
BTTS No
29%
+12.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Perth Glory EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Western United EU Bookmakers 38%
-7% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -11%
1.58/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.73
+11% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
427 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 82%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.1
23.7 Crosses 19.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Perth Glory
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Western United
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.00 xG 2.13
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
426 Passes 406
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 34
14 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
02.03.2024 Western United Western United 1-0 HT 0-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
29.04.2023 Perth Glory Perth Glory 1-2 HT 1-1 Western United Western United AVUS
04.03.2023 Western United Western United 2-1 HT 2-1 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
10.12.2022 Perth Glory Perth Glory 2-1 HT 1-0 Western United Western United AVUS
16.04.2022 Western United Western United 6-0 HT 4-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
27.02.2022 Perth Glory Perth Glory 0-2 HT 0-1 Western United Western United AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Perth Glory
3-4
AWAY Western United
2.06 xG 2.06
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 2
435 Passes 392
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Perth Glory vs Western United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Western United nicked a narrow win over Perth Glory 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 24% / 39%) promised a tight game; Western United found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Perth Glory had 53% of the ball to Western United's 47%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 2.06 to 2.06.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Western United led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Perth Glory and 2.33 for Western United.

What was the final score of Perth Glory vs Western United?

Perth Glory 3-4 Western United in the Australia - A-League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Perth Glory vs Western United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Western United win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Perth Glory 38%, draw 24%, Western United 39%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Western United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Western United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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