Western United 1-0 Perth Glory — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.38
Over 2.5
60%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.46
No
39%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.13
2-3 Goals
36%
1.96
4-5 Goals
27%
2.74
6+ Goals
17%
7.03
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.99
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
27.0
1/X
8%
12.2
X/1
13%
5.39
X/2
11%
6.68
X/X
11%
5.54
2/1
7%
22.7
2/2
13%
4.04
2/X
5%
12.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 27.0 — our 11% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-0.8pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.0pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+2.9pp
40%
Under 2.5
38%
+1.7pp
60%
Over 2.5
62%
-1.7pp
61%
BTTS Yes
64%
-3.3pp
39%
BTTS No
36%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Western United EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Perth Glory EU Bookmakers 36%
+5% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -24%
1.66/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.62
-15% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
360 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 79%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
20.4 Crosses 18.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Western United
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Perth Glory
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.18 xG 1.08
47% Ball Possession 53%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
386 Passes 462
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
29.04.2023 Perth Glory Perth Glory 1-2 HT 1-1 Western United Western United AVUS
04.03.2023 Western United Western United 2-1 HT 2-1 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
10.12.2022 Perth Glory Perth Glory 2-1 HT 1-0 Western United Western United AVUS
16.04.2022 Western United Western United 6-0 HT 4-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
27.02.2022 Perth Glory Perth Glory 0-2 HT 0-1 Western United Western United AVUS
26.11.2021 Western United Western United 1-0 HT 0-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Western United
1-0
AWAY Perth Glory
1.67 xG 1.53
62% Ball Possession 38%
24 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 5
520 Passes 264
87% Pass Accuracy 74%
60 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Western United vs Perth Glory
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Western United nicked a narrow win over Perth Glory 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Western United as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Western United had 62% of the ball to Perth Glory's 38%, shots finished 24-12, expected goals 1.67 to 1.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Western United had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Western United and 0.67 for Perth Glory.

What was the final score of Western United vs Perth Glory?

Western United 1-0 Perth Glory in the Australia - A-League on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Western United vs Perth Glory?

Before kick-off our model rated a Western United win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Western United 41%, draw 24%, Perth Glory 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Western United) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Western United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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