Newcastle Jets 0-1 Central Coast Mariners — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 2 Mar 2024

Newcastle Jets
0-1 HT 0-0
Central Coast Mariners
📅02/03/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Newcastle Jets vs Central Coast Mariners Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.99
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
42%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.15
Over 2.5
56%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.56
No
43%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.23
2-3 Goals
39%
1.87
4-5 Goals
27%
3.01
6+ Goals
11%
9.26
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.73
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
22.7
1/X
10%
13.2
X/1
10%
7.07
X/2
17%
4.79
X/X
10%
5.3
2/1
8%
31.5
2/2
16%
2.75
2/X
6%
12.95
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.7 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+1.8pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.9pp
43%
Away Win
45%
-2.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
43%
+1.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
57%
-1.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.2pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newcastle Jets v Central Coast Mariners — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle Jets EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Central Coast Mariners EU Bookmakers 49%
-6% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +12%
1.19/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.38
-14% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +69%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
331 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 81%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.7
18.8 Crosses 13.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1

Newcastle Jets vs Central Coast Mariners Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle Jets
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Central Coast Mariners
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.40 xG 2.18
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 7
381 Passes 330
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 33
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.11.2023 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 3-1 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
22.04.2023 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 1-3 HT 1-1 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
21.12.2022 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 3-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
11.12.2022 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 1-2 HT 0-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
07.05.2022 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 2-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
23.04.2022 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 2-4 HT 0-3 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS

Newcastle Jets 0-1 Central Coast Mariners — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle Jets
0-1
AWAY Central Coast Mariners
0.13 xG 0.69
40% Ball Possession 60%
5 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
277 Passes 469
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
11 Box Touches 23
26 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Newcastle Jets vs Central Coast Mariners
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Central Coast Mariners edged past Newcastle Jets 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Central Coast Mariners as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Newcastle Jets had 40% of the ball to Central Coast Mariners's 60%, shots finished 5-13, expected goals 0.13 to 0.69.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Central Coast Mariners led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Newcastle Jets and 2.67 for Central Coast Mariners.

What was the final score of Newcastle Jets vs Central Coast Mariners?

Newcastle Jets 0-1 Central Coast Mariners in the Australia - A-League on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle Jets vs Central Coast Mariners?

Before kick-off our model rated an Central Coast Mariners win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Newcastle Jets 32%, draw 26%, Central Coast Mariners 43%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Central Coast Mariners) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Central Coast Mariners) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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