Feyenoord 1-0 NEC Nijmegen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - KNVB Cup, 21 Apr 2024

Feyenoord
1-0 HT 0-0
NEC Nijmegen
📅21/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Netherlands - KNVB Cup – 2023/2024

Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.3
Draw
24%
4.95
Away
22%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.33
Over 2.5
61%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.95
No
40%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
4.88
2-3 Goals
37%
1.94
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
30%
2.8
6+ Goals
17%
7.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 2.8 — our 30% vs market 30.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.49
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
6%
23.15
X/1
16%
3.45
X/2
6%
20.0
X/X
10%
8.03
2/1
7%
22.3
2/2
7%
15.5
2/X
8%
23.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
72%
-18.4pp
24%
Draw
17%
+6.9pp
22%
Away Win
11%
+11.5pp
39%
Under 2.5
39%
-0.3pp
61%
Over 2.5
61%
+0.3pp
60%
BTTS Yes
47%
+12.4pp
40%
BTTS No
53%
-12.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Feyenoord v NEC Nijmegen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Feyenoord EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 14%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
3.05/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/5.10
-1% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -19%
60% Ball Possession 40%
20 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
416 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 75%
44.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
22.8 Crosses 6.7
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.9

Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Feyenoord
3W-3D-0L
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
2.98 xG 0.72
65% Ball Possession 34%
27 Total Shots 8
11 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 2
598 Passes 270
88% Pass Accuracy 75%
57 Box Touches 10
31 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.01.2024 Feyenoord Feyenoord 2-2 HT 2-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
08.02.2023 Feyenoord Feyenoord 4-4 HT 0-2 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOK
25.01.2023 Feyenoord Feyenoord 2-0 HT 2-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
02.10.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-1 HT 1-1 Feyenoord Feyenoord HOL
23.01.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-4 HT 1-1 Feyenoord Feyenoord HOL
25.09.2021 Feyenoord Feyenoord 5-3 HT 2-2 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL

Feyenoord 1-0 NEC Nijmegen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Feyenoord
1-0
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
1.43 xG 0.79
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 13
10 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
336 Passes 272
75% Pass Accuracy 71%
27 Box Touches 14
11 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Feyenoord nicked a narrow win over NEC Nijmegen 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Feyenoord as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Feyenoord had 54% of the ball to NEC Nijmegen's 46%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 1.43 to 0.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Feyenoord had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Feyenoord and 1.83 for NEC Nijmegen.

What was the final score of Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen?

Feyenoord 1-0 NEC Nijmegen in the Netherlands - KNVB Cup on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Feyenoord win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Feyenoord 54%, draw 24%, NEC Nijmegen 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Feyenoord) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Feyenoord) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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