FC Tokyo 1-2 Machida Zelvia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.46
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
35%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.6
Over 2.5
43%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.53
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.68
6+ Goals
9%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.72
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
10%
5.1
X/2
11%
5.61
X/X
15%
3.88
2/1
6%
33.0
2/2
15%
4.24
2/X
7%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-0.9pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.1pp
35%
Away Win
33%
+2.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.7pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 37%
-7% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +47% / +47%
1.21/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/0.69
+6% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +56% / +16%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
403 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 76%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
15.9 Crosses 14.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Tokyo
1-2
AWAY Machida Zelvia
1.99 xG 0.39
65% Ball Possession 35%
15 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
402 Passes 169
80% Pass Accuracy 62%
31 Box Touches 20
25 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Tokyo vs Machida Zelvia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Machida Zelvia squeezed past FC Tokyo 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 35%) promised a tight game; Machida Zelvia found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Tokyo had 65% of the ball to Machida Zelvia's 35%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 1.99 to 0.39 — on chances, FC Tokyo could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of FC Tokyo vs Machida Zelvia?

FC Tokyo 1-2 Machida Zelvia in the Japan - J1 League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tokyo vs Machida Zelvia?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Tokyo win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split FC Tokyo 36%, draw 28%, Machida Zelvia 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (FC Tokyo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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