Nagoya Grampus 2-1 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
32%
2.88
Away
33%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.45
Over 2.5
33%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.16
No
62%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2.08
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
15%
6.22
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.56
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.95
X/1
13%
5.51
X/2
11%
4.89
X/X
18%
3.4
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
16%
3.88
2/X
7%
14.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+3.0pp
31%
Draw
31%
+0.1pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-3.0pp
67%
Under 2.5
65%
+1.4pp
33%
Over 2.5
35%
-1.4pp
38%
BTTS Yes
42%
-4.1pp
62%
BTTS No
58%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 40%
+8% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -5%
1.38/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.32
+12% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +16%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
361 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 78%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
14.6 Crosses 16.8
1.4 Yellow Cards 0.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nagoya Grampus
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.00 xG 1.12
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
293 Passes 415
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
26.08.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 3-1 HT 1-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
03.06.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 3-1 HT 3-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
05.11.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-1 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
13.07.2022 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-2 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JPK
14.05.2022 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-0 HT 1-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
27.11.2021 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-1 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nagoya Grampus
2-1
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
30% Ball Possession 70%
7 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 10
POST-MATCH Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nagoya Grampus nicked a narrow win over Cerezo Osaka 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 31% / 33% — and on the day Nagoya Grampus made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nagoya Grampus had 30% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 70%, shots finished 7-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Nagoya Grampus and 1.33 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?

Nagoya Grampus 2-1 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nagoya Grampus win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Nagoya Grampus 35%, draw 31%, Cerezo Osaka 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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