FC Astana 2-2 Tobol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kazakistan - Super League, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.71
Over 2.5
46%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
1.96
No
64%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-3.0pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.2pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+6.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
55%
-0.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
45%
+0.6pp
36%
BTTS Yes
47%
-10.8pp
64%
BTTS No
53%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Astana EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Tobol EU Bookmakers 24%
-18% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +2%
1.49/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.59
-6% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
356 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Astana
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Tobol
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.09.2023 FC Astana FC Astana 2-1 HT 1-0 Tobol Tobol KAZP
09.04.2023 Tobol Tobol 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Astana FC Astana KAZP
14.09.2022 FC Astana FC Astana 1-2 HT 1-1 Tobol Tobol KAZP
26.04.2022 Tobol Tobol 1-1 HT 1-0 FC Astana FC Astana KAZP
13.06.2021 FC Astana FC Astana 1-1 HT 1-1 Tobol Tobol KAZP
05.04.2021 Tobol Tobol 1-1 HT 1-0 FC Astana FC Astana KAZP
POST-MATCH FC Astana vs Tobol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Astana and Tobol couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was FC Astana at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Astana had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for FC Astana and 1.00 for Tobol.

What was the final score of FC Astana vs Tobol?

FC Astana 2-2 Tobol in the Kazakistan - Super League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Astana vs Tobol?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Astana win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split FC Astana 50%, draw 23%, Tobol 27%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (FC Astana) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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KAZP More Kazakistan - Super League
21 Apr 2024
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