CA La Paz 3-2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.97
Over 2.5
45%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.7
No
55%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
17%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
49%
-8.1pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.3pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+3.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
47%
+8.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
53%
-8.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
55%
-10.1pp
55%
BTTS No
45%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA La Paz EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Alebrijes de Oaxaca EU Bookmakers 31%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -9%
1.91/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.39
+24% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
356 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 4.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA La Paz
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
23.03.2024 CA La Paz CA La Paz 2-1 HT 0-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
20.09.2023 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2-2 HT 1-1 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
25.03.2023 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-2 HT 1-2 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
30.09.2022 CA La Paz CA La Paz 2-1 HT 0-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
POST-MATCH CA La Paz vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA La Paz edged past Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3-2. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 31% — and on the day CA La Paz made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, CA La Paz had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for CA La Paz and 1.25 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca.

What was the final score of CA La Paz vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?

CA La Paz 3-2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca in the Mexico - Primera A on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA La Paz vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA La Paz win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split CA La Paz 40%, draw 28%, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 31%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA La Paz) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CA La Paz) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →