CA La Paz 2-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 23 Mar 2024

📅23/03/2024 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.86
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.91
Over 2.5
45%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
52%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
50%
-4.8pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.4pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+0.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.3pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA La Paz EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Alebrijes de Oaxaca EU Bookmakers 29%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -11%
1.90/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.37
+23% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
349 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 4.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA La Paz
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
20.09.2023 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2-2 HT 1-1 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
25.03.2023 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-2 HT 1-2 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
30.09.2022 CA La Paz CA La Paz 2-1 HT 0-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
POST-MATCH CA La Paz vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA La Paz edged past Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had CA La Paz as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, CA La Paz had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for CA La Paz and 1.33 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca.

What was the final score of CA La Paz vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?

CA La Paz 2-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca in the Mexico - Primera A on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA La Paz vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA La Paz win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split CA La Paz 45%, draw 29%, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA La Paz), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CA La Paz) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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