Atletico Grau 1-2 Melgar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.33
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
33%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.59
Over 2.5
40%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.95
No
58%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-1.7pp
30%
Draw
30%
-0.0pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+1.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+0.7pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-0.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.9pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Grau EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Melgar EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -4%
0.96/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.17
+27% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -17%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
278 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 74%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
21.0 Crosses 17.8
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Grau
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Melgar
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
0.73 xG 2.44
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
241 Passes 352
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
10 Box Touches 36
11 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
07.07.2023 Melgar Melgar 3-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau PER
04.02.2023 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 3-0 Melgar Melgar PER
24.10.2022 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 2-1 HT 0-1 Melgar Melgar PER
25.06.2022 Melgar Melgar 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau PER
14.10.2020 Melgar Melgar 3-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Grau
1-2
AWAY Melgar
1.58 xG 1.66
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
327 Passes 228
76% Pass Accuracy 68%
27 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atletico Grau vs Melgar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melgar nicked a narrow win over Atletico Grau 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 30% / 33%) promised a tight game; Melgar found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Grau had 57% of the ball to Melgar's 43%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 1.58 to 1.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Melgar led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Atletico Grau and 1.60 for Melgar.

What was the final score of Atletico Grau vs Melgar?

Atletico Grau 1-2 Melgar in the Peru - Premier League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Grau vs Melgar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Grau win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Atletico Grau 38%, draw 30%, Melgar 33%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Grau) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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