Lodzki KS 2-3 Lech Poznan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 21 Apr 2024

Lodzki KS
2-3 HT 0-1
Lech Poznan
📅21/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2023/2024

Lodzki KS vs Lech Poznan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.75
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
46%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.1
Over 2.5
54%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.05
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
29%
3.09
6+ Goals
9%
9.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.51
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
21.85
1/X
9%
14.85
X/1
13%
9.0
X/2
13%
4.14
X/X
9%
5.56
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
24%
2.23
2/X
6%
14.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.85 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
23%
+6.9pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.7pp
46%
Away Win
53%
-7.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.1pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lodzki KS v Lech Poznan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lodzki KS EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 57%
+2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -13%
1.09/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/0.98
+14% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -9%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
251 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 80%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.8
13.3 Crosses 22.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.7

Lodzki KS vs Lech Poznan Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lodzki KS
0W-1D-4L
AWAY Lech Poznan
0.40 Avg Goals (FT) 2.20
0.94 xG 1.25
44% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 10
245 Passes 487
78% Pass Accuracy 87%
8 Box Touches 23
9 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
21.10.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 3-1 HT 2-0 Lodzki KS Lodzki KS POL
07.12.2019 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-0 HT 0-0 Lodzki KS Lodzki KS POL
03.08.2019 Lodzki KS Lodzki KS 1-2 HT 1-2 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
25.09.2018 Lodzki KS Lodzki KS 0-0 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POLK
03.12.2011 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 4-0 HT 4-0 Lodzki KS Lodzki KS POL

Lodzki KS 2-3 Lech Poznan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lodzki KS
2-3
AWAY Lech Poznan
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 7
POST-MATCH Lodzki KS vs Lech Poznan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lech Poznan squeezed past Lodzki KS 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lech Poznan as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Lodzki KS had 42% of the ball to Lech Poznan's 58%, shots finished 11-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Lech Poznan led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.40 goals for Lodzki KS and 2.20 for Lech Poznan.

What was the final score of Lodzki KS vs Lech Poznan?

Lodzki KS 2-3 Lech Poznan in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lodzki KS vs Lech Poznan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Lodzki KS 30%, draw 24%, Lech Poznan 46%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lech Poznan), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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