Sepsi 1-3 Universitatea Craiova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Romania - 1st Division, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.38
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
31%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.75
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.97
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.93
6+ Goals
10%
17.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
38%
+2.7pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.3pp
31%
Away Win
34%
-2.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
53%
-0.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
47%
+0.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.5pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sepsi EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Universitatea Craiova EU Bookmakers 37%
-15% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -17%
0.85/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.37
-31% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -25%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
320 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sepsi
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Universitatea Craiova
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
353 Passes 334
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.02.2024 Sepsi Sepsi 1-3 HT 1-1 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova ROM
16.09.2023 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova 2-1 HT 2-1 Sepsi Sepsi ROM
21.04.2023 Sepsi Sepsi 1-2 HT 0-0 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova ROM
29.10.2022 Sepsi Sepsi 0-1 HT 0-0 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova ROM
15.07.2022 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova 2-2 HT 1-0 Sepsi Sepsi ROM
12.05.2022 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova 0-1 HT 0-0 Sepsi Sepsi ROK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sepsi
1-3
AWAY Universitatea Craiova
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 9
1 Corners 9
POST-MATCH Sepsi vs Universitatea Craiova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Universitatea Craiova saw off Sepsi 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Sepsi at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Sepsi had 57% of the ball to Universitatea Craiova's 43%, shots finished 14-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Universitatea Craiova led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sepsi and 1.67 for Universitatea Craiova.

What was the final score of Sepsi vs Universitatea Craiova?

Sepsi 1-3 Universitatea Craiova in the Romania - 1st Division on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sepsi vs Universitatea Craiova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sepsi win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Sepsi 41%, draw 28%, Universitatea Craiova 31%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sepsi) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ROM More Romania - 1st Division
21 Apr 2024
16:00 Otelul Galati vs Universitatea Cluj Analysis →