Al Najma 2-1 Al Jabalain — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia - 1st Division, 21 Apr 2025

📅21/04/2025 · 🕒19:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
34%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
54%
1.78
Over
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2-3
42%
4-5
22%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
19%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
46%
-6.1pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
34%
Away Win
27%
+6.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.4pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Najma EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Jabalain EU Bookmakers 31%
+3% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -2%
1.80/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/0.96
+35% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +34%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
350 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Najma
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Al Jabalain
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 4
09.12.2024 Al Jabalain Al Jabalain 1-0 HT 0-0 Al Najma Al Najma SUUD1
24.04.2024 Al Jabalain Al Jabalain 0-2 HT 0-0 Al Najma Al Najma SUUD1
05.12.2023 Al Najma Al Najma 3-0 HT 0-0 Al Jabalain Al Jabalain SUUD1
POST-MATCH Al Najma vs Al Jabalain
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Najma squeezed past Al Jabalain 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 34% — and on the day Al Najma made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Al Najma had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Al Najma and 0.33 for Al Jabalain.

What was the final score of Al Najma vs Al Jabalain?

Al Najma 2-1 Al Jabalain in the Saudi Arabia - 1st Division on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Najma vs Al Jabalain?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Najma win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Al Najma 40%, draw 26%, Al Jabalain 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Najma) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Najma) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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