Guarani FC 1-2 America Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 21 May 2024

Guarani FC
1-2 HT 1-1
America Mineiro
📅21/05/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2024

Guarani FC vs America Mineiro Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.08
Draw
33%
3.11
Away
36%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
66%
1.54
Over 2.5
34%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.03
No
59%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
40%
2.34
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
5.16
6+ Goals
7%
31.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.34 — our 40% vs market 36.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
20%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 66% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
29%
+1.8pp
33%
Draw
29%
+4.1pp
37%
Away Win
42%
-5.8pp
66%
Under 2.5
61%
+5.2pp
34%
Over 2.5
39%
-5.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
45%
-4.4pp
59%
BTTS No
55%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Guarani FC v America Mineiro — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guarani FC EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY America Mineiro EU Bookmakers 46%
-5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +8%
1.07/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/0.94
+9% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +53%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
295 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 78%
15.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
20.5 Crosses 17.3
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.0

Guarani FC vs America Mineiro Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guarani FC
0W-2D-4L
AWAY America Mineiro
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.52 xG 1.51
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
378 Passes 256
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
12 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.01.2021 Guarani FC Guarani FC 0-1 HT 0-1 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
03.10.2020 America Mineiro America Mineiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
23.11.2019 Guarani FC Guarani FC 0-1 HT 0-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
25.08.2019 America Mineiro America Mineiro 3-2 HT 1-1 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
04.11.2017 Guarani FC Guarani FC 0-1 HT 0-1 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
15.07.2017 America Mineiro America Mineiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2

Guarani FC 1-2 America Mineiro — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guarani FC
1-2
AWAY America Mineiro
2.19 xG 1.93
36% Ball Possession 64%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 8
247 Passes 546
73% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 16
5 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Guarani FC vs America Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

America Mineiro edged past Guarani FC 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (31% / 33% / 37%) promised a tight game; America Mineiro found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Guarani FC had 36% of the ball to America Mineiro's 64%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 2.19 to 1.93.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, America Mineiro led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Guarani FC and 1.00 for America Mineiro.

What was the final score of Guarani FC vs America Mineiro?

Guarani FC 1-2 America Mineiro in the Brazil - Serie B on 21/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guarani FC vs America Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated an America Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Guarani FC 31%, draw 33%, America Mineiro 37%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (America Mineiro) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (America Mineiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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