New Mexico United 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 21 May 2026

📅21/05/2026 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.99
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
46%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.18
Over 2.5
48%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.56
No
47%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.97
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
2.85
6+ Goals
9%
8.59
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.97 — our 29% vs market 18.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
20%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
30%
-1.0pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
46%
Away Win
46%
-0.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
42%
+10.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
58%
-10.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.4pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 50%
+0% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -10%
1.23/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.28
+25% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +17%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
330 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 80%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.3
12.7 Crosses 20.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New Mexico United
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.37 xG 0.64
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
422 Passes 350
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
11.06.2023 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-2 HT 1-1 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New Mexico United
0-1
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
0.81 xG 1.83
61% Ball Possession 39%
9 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
364 Passes 184
84% Pass Accuracy 71%
13 Box Touches 32
9 Crosses 17
6 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH New Mexico United vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tampa Bay Rowdies nicked a narrow win over New Mexico United 1-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Tampa Bay Rowdies as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, New Mexico United had 61% of the ball to Tampa Bay Rowdies's 39%, shots finished 9-18, expected goals 0.81 to 1.83.

What was the final score of New Mexico United vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

New Mexico United 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL Championship on 21/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tampa Bay Rowdies win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 29%, draw 25%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 46%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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