Smorgon 4-1 Slutsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 21 Jun 2024

📅21/06/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.31
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.57
6+ Goals
9%
14.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.31 — our 31% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
44%
-3.0pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.0pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+1.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.3pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Smorgon EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Slutsk EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -2%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
328 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Smorgon
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Slutsk
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 2.20
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 1
03.09.2023 Slutsk Slutsk 3-3 HT 1-1 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
21.04.2023 Smorgon Smorgon 3-2 HT 1-1 Slutsk Slutsk BLR
21.06.2022 Smorgon Smorgon 1-3 HT 0-0 Slutsk Slutsk BLRK
23.10.2021 Slutsk Slutsk 2-1 HT 1-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
12.06.2021 Smorgon Smorgon 1-1 HT 0-1 Slutsk Slutsk BLR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Smorgon
4-1
AWAY Slutsk
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Smorgon vs Slutsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Smorgon swept aside Slutsk 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Smorgon as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Smorgon had 46% of the ball to Slutsk's 54%, shots finished 13-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Slutsk led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Smorgon and 2.20 for Slutsk.

What was the final score of Smorgon vs Slutsk?

Smorgon 4-1 Slutsk in the Belarus - Premier League on 21/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Smorgon vs Slutsk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Smorgon win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Smorgon 41%, draw 28%, Slutsk 31%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Smorgon) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Smorgon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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