Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Kagoshima United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 21 Jun 2025

📅21/06/2025 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
36%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.95
Over 2.5
43%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.66
No
55%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
17%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
34%
+4.7pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.8pp
36%
Away Win
40%
-3.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+9.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-9.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.9pp
55%
BTTS No
44%
+10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Kagoshima United EU Bookmakers 43%
-8% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -6%
1.23/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.29
-3% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -8%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
319 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.6 Crosses 16.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Kagoshima United
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
19.08.2023 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United 0-2 HT 0-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
28.05.2023 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 2-4 HT 2-1 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United JAP3
14.08.2022 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United 4-2 HT 2-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
1-1
AWAY Kagoshima United
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 11
266 Passes 297
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matsumoto Yamaga and Kagoshima United shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 25% / 36% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Matsumoto Yamaga had 46% of the ball to Kagoshima United's 54%, shots finished 10-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Kagoshima United led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 2.67 for Kagoshima United.

What was the final score of Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United?

Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Kagoshima United in the Japan - J3 League on 21/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Matsumoto Yamaga win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Matsumoto Yamaga 39%, draw 25%, Kagoshima United 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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