Östersunds FK 2-1 Degerfors — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Superettan, 21 Jul 2024

Östersunds FK
2-1 HT 2-0
Degerfors
📅21/07/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Sweden - Superettan – 2024

Östersunds FK vs Degerfors Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.46
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
40%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.67
2-3 Goals
43%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.29
6+ Goals
9%
11.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.67 — our 28% vs market 22.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.66
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
10%
5.64
X/2
17%
5.61
X/X
10%
4.82
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
17%
3.63
2/X
8%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-2.5pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.7pp
40%
Away Win
36%
+4.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.3pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Östersunds FK v Degerfors — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Östersunds FK EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Degerfors EU Bookmakers 40%
+8% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +0%
1.61/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.15
+12% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +26%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
259 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.0

Östersunds FK vs Degerfors Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Östersunds FK
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Degerfors
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.69 xG 2.56
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
348 Passes 390
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 40
18 Crosses 33
1 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
04.12.2021 Östersunds FK Östersunds FK 0-1 HT 0-0 Degerfors Degerfors İSÇ
03.07.2021 Degerfors Degerfors 3-1 HT 0-1 Östersunds FK Östersunds FK İSÇ
17.08.2015 Degerfors Degerfors 0-0 HT 0-0 Östersunds FK Östersunds FK İSÇ2
03.06.2015 Östersunds FK Östersunds FK 3-2 HT 2-1 Degerfors Degerfors İSÇ2
20.09.2014 Östersunds FK Östersunds FK 0-0 HT 0-0 Degerfors Degerfors İSÇ2
17.05.2014 Degerfors Degerfors 2-2 HT 0-2 Östersunds FK Östersunds FK İSÇ2

Östersunds FK 2-1 Degerfors — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Östersunds FK
2-1
AWAY Degerfors
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Östersunds FK vs Degerfors
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Östersunds FK nicked a narrow win over Degerfors 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (35% / 25% / 40%) promised a tight game; Östersunds FK found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Östersunds FK had 52% of the ball to Degerfors's 48%, shots finished 11-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Degerfors led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Östersunds FK and 1.33 for Degerfors.

What was the final score of Östersunds FK vs Degerfors?

Östersunds FK 2-1 Degerfors in the Sweden - Superettan on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Östersunds FK vs Degerfors?

Before kick-off our model rated an Degerfors win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Östersunds FK 35%, draw 25%, Degerfors 40%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Degerfors) ✗ BTTS No
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