Paysandu 1-0 Ponte Preta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 21 Jul 2024

📅21/07/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.64
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
28%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.67
Over 2.5
41%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.09
No
60%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.68
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.39
6+ Goals
9%
22.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.68 — our 34% vs market 31.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
57%
-12.4pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.3pp
28%
Away Win
18%
+10.1pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.3pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.3pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.1pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paysandu EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Ponte Preta EU Bookmakers 21%
-6% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +5%
1.42/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/1.18
-8% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +28%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
355 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 74%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.4
24.6 Crosses 16.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paysandu
1W-1D-3L
AWAY Ponte Preta
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 2.20
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
274 Passes 310
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
12 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.08.2018 Paysandu Paysandu 0-4 HT 0-2 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
15.04.2018 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 0-1 HT 0-1 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
08.09.2005 Paysandu Paysandu 2-2 HT 1-1 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR1
08.05.2005 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 2-0 HT 1-0 Paysandu Paysandu BR1
28.10.2004 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 3-0 HT 3-0 Paysandu Paysandu BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paysandu
1-0
AWAY Ponte Preta
1.73 xG 0.15
69% Ball Possession 31%
27 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
13 Corners 0
379 Passes 132
88% Pass Accuracy 65%
24 Box Touches 6
37 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Paysandu vs Ponte Preta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paysandu nicked a narrow win over Ponte Preta 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Paysandu as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Paysandu had 69% of the ball to Ponte Preta's 31%, shots finished 27-6, expected goals 1.73 to 0.15 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Paysandu's control.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Ponte Preta led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Paysandu and 2.20 for Ponte Preta.

What was the final score of Paysandu vs Ponte Preta?

Paysandu 1-0 Ponte Preta in the Brazil - Serie B on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paysandu vs Ponte Preta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paysandu win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Paysandu 45%, draw 28%, Ponte Preta 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paysandu), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Paysandu) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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