Paysandu vs Ponte Preta Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Paysandu v Ponte Preta — Team-Based Signals
Paysandu vs Ponte Preta Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
0-4
HT 0-2
Ponte Preta
BR2
0-1
HT 0-1
Paysandu
BR2
2-2
HT 1-1
Ponte Preta
BR1
2-0
HT 1-0
Paysandu
BR1
3-0
HT 3-0
Paysandu
BR1
Paysandu 1-0 Ponte Preta — Actual Match Statistics
Paysandu nicked a narrow win over Ponte Preta 1-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Paysandu as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Paysandu had 69% of the ball to Ponte Preta's 31%, shots finished 27-6, expected goals 1.73 to 0.15 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Paysandu's control.
For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Ponte Preta led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Paysandu and 2.20 for Ponte Preta.
What was the final score of Paysandu vs Ponte Preta?
Paysandu 1-0 Ponte Preta in the Brazil - Serie B on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Paysandu vs Ponte Preta?
Before kick-off our model rated a Paysandu win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Paysandu 45%, draw 28%, Ponte Preta 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paysandu), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.