Lecce 2-2 Parma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 21 Sep 2024

Lecce
2-2 HT 1-0
Parma
📅21/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Lecce vs Parma Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.35
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.53
6+ Goals
10%
13.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.35 — our 27% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.79
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
17%
4.59
X/2
11%
7.14
X/X
13%
4.64
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
11%
5.21
2/X
8%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
46%
-6.0pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+4.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.0pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lecce v Parma — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lecce EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Parma EU Bookmakers 31%
-2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +1%
1.33/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.77
-37% / +81% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +59% / -25%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
344 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 78%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
19.5 Crosses 13.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4

Lecce vs Parma Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lecce
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Parma
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.92 xG 1.57
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
396 Passes 371
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
28 Box Touches 25
22 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.11.2023 Lecce Lecce 2-4 HT 0-2 Parma Parma İTK
29.07.2022 Parma Parma 1-0 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce HAZ
19.03.2022 Parma Parma 0-0 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTB
07.11.2021 Lecce Lecce 4-0 HT 4-0 Parma Parma İTB
15.08.2021 Parma Parma 1-3 HT 1-2 Lecce Lecce İTK
02.08.2020 Lecce Lecce 3-4 HT 2-2 Parma Parma İTA

Lecce 2-2 Parma — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lecce
2-2
AWAY Parma
1.51 xG 2.11
38% Ball Possession 62%
14 Total Shots 25
3 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 12
259 Passes 457
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 40
12 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Lecce vs Parma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lecce and Parma shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 32% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Lecce had 38% of the ball to Parma's 62%, shots finished 14-25, expected goals 1.51 to 2.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Parma led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Lecce and 1.67 for Parma.

What was the final score of Lecce vs Parma?

Lecce 2-2 Parma in the Italy - Serie A on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lecce vs Parma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lecce win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Lecce 40%, draw 28%, Parma 32%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lecce) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lecce) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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