Venezia 2-0 Genoa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
40%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.67
Over 2.5
47%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.69
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.35
6+ Goals
9%
22.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.16
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
17%
5.71
X/2
17%
5.29
X/X
14%
3.93
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
18%
3.72
2/X
6%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Genoa win — 41%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-1.4pp
27%
Draw
30%
-2.8pp
41%
Away Win
36%
+4.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.4pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Venezia EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Genoa EU Bookmakers 40%
-26% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +3%
1.18/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.05
-46% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +22%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
330 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 77%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
25.4 Crosses 18.4
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Venezia
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Genoa
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.87 xG 1.42
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
264 Passes 324
72% Pass Accuracy 75%
14 Box Touches 28
15 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.07.2024 Venezia Venezia 1-3 HT 0-2 Genoa Genoa HAZ
22.07.2023 Genoa Genoa 1-4 Venezia Venezia HAZ
16.01.2023 Genoa Genoa 1-0 HT 0-0 Venezia Venezia İTB
14.08.2022 Venezia Venezia 1-2 HT 0-1 Genoa Genoa İTB
20.02.2022 Venezia Venezia 1-1 HT 1-1 Genoa Genoa İTA
31.10.2021 Genoa Genoa 0-0 HT 0-0 Venezia Venezia İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Venezia
2-0
AWAY Genoa
1.66 xG 0.50
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 4
290 Passes 323
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 14
10 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Venezia vs Genoa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Venezia beat Genoa 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Genoa at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Venezia had 49% of the ball to Genoa's 51%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.66 to 0.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genoa led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Venezia and 1.33 for Genoa.

What was the final score of Venezia vs Genoa?

Venezia 2-0 Genoa in the Italy - Serie A on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Venezia vs Genoa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Genoa win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Venezia 33%, draw 27%, Genoa 41%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Genoa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Genoa) ✓ Under 2.5
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