Venezia 1-3 Genoa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 20 Jul 2024

Venezia
1-3 HT 0-2
Genoa
📅20/07/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Friendlies – 2024/2025

Venezia vs Genoa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
31%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.34
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.53
6+ Goals
11%
13.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Venezia win — 43%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
-0.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
31%
Away Win
31%
+0.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+1.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-1.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-1.7pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Venezia v Genoa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Venezia EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Genoa EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -63% / +92%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
324 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 390 · 81%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 0.0

Venezia vs Genoa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Venezia
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Genoa
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.87 xG 1.42
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
264 Passes 324
72% Pass Accuracy 75%
14 Box Touches 28
15 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.07.2023 Genoa Genoa 1-4 Venezia Venezia HAZ
16.01.2023 Genoa Genoa 1-0 HT 0-0 Venezia Venezia İTB
14.08.2022 Venezia Venezia 1-2 HT 0-1 Genoa Genoa İTB
20.02.2022 Venezia Venezia 1-1 HT 1-1 Genoa Genoa İTA
31.10.2021 Genoa Genoa 0-0 HT 0-0 Venezia Venezia İTA
16.01.2005 Venezia Venezia 0-3 HT 0-1 Genoa Genoa İTB
POST-MATCH Venezia vs Genoa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genoa got the better of Venezia 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Venezia at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genoa led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Venezia and 1.33 for Genoa.

What was the final score of Venezia vs Genoa?

Venezia 1-3 Genoa in the Friendlies on 20/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Venezia vs Genoa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Venezia win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Venezia 43%, draw 26%, Genoa 31%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Venezia), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Venezia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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