Melbourne Victory 1-0 Adelaide United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - FFA Cup, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
28%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.38
Over 2.5
53%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.56
No
50%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
57%
-8.3pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.4pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+6.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
38%
+8.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
62%
-8.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.7pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne Victory EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Adelaide United EU Bookmakers 25%
+35% / +35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -44% / -44%
4.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/3.00
+67% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -29%
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
422 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 76%
53.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.0 Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne Victory
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Adelaide United
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.94 xG 1.06
45% Ball Possession 55%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
337 Passes 422
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
31 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 4
09.03.2024 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-2 HT 0-1 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
30.12.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 2-0 HT 0-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
04.11.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 1-1 HT 1-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
26.02.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 1-1 HT 0-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
14.01.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-1 HT 1-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
11.11.2022 Adelaide United Adelaide United 3-0 HT 1-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne Victory
1-0
AWAY Adelaide United
1.05 xG 0.75
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
340 Passes 474
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 28
13 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Victory edged past Adelaide United 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Melbourne Victory as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Melbourne Victory had 43% of the ball to Adelaide United's 57%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 1.05 to 0.75.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Melbourne Victory and 1.17 for Adelaide United.

What was the final score of Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United?

Melbourne Victory 1-0 Adelaide United in the Australia - FFA Cup on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Victory 48%, draw 23%, Adelaide United 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne Victory) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne Victory) ✗ Over 2.5
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