Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Melbourne Victory v Adelaide United — Team-Based Signals
Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 0-0
Adelaide United
AVUS
1-1
HT 1-0
Adelaide United
AVUS
1-1
HT 0-0
Adelaide United
AVUS
1-1
HT 1-0
Melbourne Victory
AVUS
3-0
HT 1-0
Melbourne Victory
AVUS
Melbourne Victory 1-0 Adelaide United — Actual Match Statistics
Melbourne Victory edged past Adelaide United 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Melbourne Victory as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Melbourne Victory had 43% of the ball to Adelaide United's 57%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 1.05 to 0.75.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Melbourne Victory and 1.17 for Adelaide United.
What was the final score of Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United?
Melbourne Victory 1-0 Adelaide United in the Australia - FFA Cup on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United?
Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Victory 48%, draw 23%, Adelaide United 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne Victory) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.