Adelaide United 1-2 Melbourne Victory — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 9 Mar 2024

Adelaide United
1-2 HT 0-1
Melbourne Victory
📅09/03/2024 · 🕒12:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.32
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
46%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.46
No
43%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.52
2-3 Goals
40%
2.01
4-5 Goals
30%
2.65
6+ Goals
10%
6.37
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
5.3
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
20.6
1/X
9%
13.0
X/1
7%
8.4
X/2
10%
4.73
X/X
7%
5.93
2/1
6%
33.0
2/2
28%
2.38
2/X
6%
12.7
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.6 — our 8% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
27%
+5.1pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.2pp
47%
Away Win
49%
-2.8pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.0pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.0pp
57%
BTTS Yes
64%
-7.8pp
43%
BTTS No
36%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Adelaide United v Melbourne Victory — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Adelaide United EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Victory EU Bookmakers 54%
+31% / +30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
1.59/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.45
+64% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +16%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
328 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 410 · 83%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.3
21.0 Crosses 17.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0

Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Adelaide United
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Melbourne Victory
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.94 xG 1.54
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
426 Passes 325
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 27
22 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.12.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 2-0 HT 0-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
04.11.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 1-1 HT 1-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
26.02.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 1-1 HT 0-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
14.01.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-1 HT 1-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
11.11.2022 Adelaide United Adelaide United 3-0 HT 1-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
02.04.2022 Adelaide United Adelaide United 0-1 HT 0-1 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS

Adelaide United 1-2 Melbourne Victory — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Adelaide United
1-2
AWAY Melbourne Victory
1.65 xG 3.41
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 22
5 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 7
381 Passes 353
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 39
17 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Victory nicked a narrow win over Adelaide United 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Melbourne Victory as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Adelaide United had 51% of the ball to Melbourne Victory's 49%, shots finished 17-22, expected goals 1.65 to 3.41 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Melbourne Victory's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Adelaide United and 1.00 for Melbourne Victory.

What was the final score of Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory?

Adelaide United 1-2 Melbourne Victory in the Australia - A-League on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Adelaide United 32%, draw 22%, Melbourne Victory 47%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne Victory), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne Victory) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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