Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction — Model Probabilities
Melbourne City v Wellington Phoenix — Team-Based Signals
Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Melbourne City 1-0 Wellington Phoenix — Actual Match Statistics
Melbourne City came out on the right side of a one-goal game with Wellington Phoenix 1-0. Level at 0-0 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Melbourne City as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The one blemish: over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (57%) never looked like landing.
On the day, Melbourne City had 52% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 48%, shots finished 28-11, expected goals 2.54 to 1.12 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Melbourne City's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Melbourne City and 1.17 for Wellington Phoenix.
Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix Result & Final Score
Melbourne City 1 - 0 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Melbourne City 46%, draw 26%, Wellington Phoenix 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.