Melbourne City 1-0 Wellington Phoenix — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 9 Mar 2024

Melbourne City
1-0 HT 0-0
Wellington Phoenix
📅09/03/2024 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
36%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.94
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.14
6+ Goals
11%
10.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.74
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
33.0
1/X
7%
13.05
X/1
16%
4.7
X/2
15%
7.14
X/X
11%
5.12
2/1
5%
23.15
2/2
12%
4.91
2/X
7%
13.4
Value flag · 1/2 at 33.0 — our 10% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
46%
-8.1pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
36%
Away Win
28%
+8.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.2pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Melbourne City v Wellington Phoenix — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +18%
1.49/1.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/1.31
+5% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +38%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
366 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 80%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.3
19.9 Crosses 15.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5

Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne City
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.99 xG 1.54
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
451 Passes 395
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
34 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.11.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
27.08.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 3-0 HT 1-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUK
10.04.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 4-1 HT 1-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
02.01.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-3 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
30.10.2022 Melbourne City Melbourne City 2-2 HT 2-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
17.08.2022 Melbourne City Melbourne City 1-2 HT 0-2 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUK

Melbourne City 1-0 Wellington Phoenix — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne City
1-0
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
2.54 xG 1.12
52% Ball Possession 48%
28 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 3
421 Passes 404
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
44 Box Touches 20
30 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne City nicked a narrow win over Wellington Phoenix 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 36% — and on the day Melbourne City made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Melbourne City had 52% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 48%, shots finished 28-11, expected goals 2.54 to 1.12 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Melbourne City's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Melbourne City and 1.17 for Wellington Phoenix.

What was the final score of Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix?

Melbourne City 1-0 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Melbourne City 38%, draw 26%, Wellington Phoenix 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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