LASK Linz 4-2 Grazer AK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
29%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.15
Over 2.5
51%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.2
2-3 Goals
38%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
3.02
6+ Goals
12%
9.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.2 — our 27% vs market 18.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.25
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.8
X/1
11%
4.24
X/2
7%
9.0
X/X
14%
5.51
2/1
10%
21.85
2/2
14%
6.41
2/X
7%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-8.3pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.4pp
29%
Away Win
23%
+6.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
43%
+6.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
57%
-6.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.8pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME LASK Linz EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Grazer AK EU Bookmakers 26%
-12% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -6%
1.60/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.07
-15% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -12%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
337 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 68%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
21.9 Crosses 14.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME LASK Linz
4-2
AWAY Grazer AK
2.64 xG 0.66
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
365 Passes 310
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 15
14 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH LASK Linz vs Grazer AK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

LASK Linz got the better of Grazer AK 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had LASK Linz as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, LASK Linz had 54% of the ball to Grazer AK's 46%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 2.64 to 0.66.

What was the final score of LASK Linz vs Grazer AK?

LASK Linz 4-2 Grazer AK in the Austria - Bundesliga on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for LASK Linz vs Grazer AK?

Before kick-off our model rated a LASK Linz win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split LASK Linz 45%, draw 27%, Grazer AK 29%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (LASK Linz), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (LASK Linz) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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