Vitoria 1-0 Juventude — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 21 Sep 2024

Vitoria
1-0 HT 1-0
Juventude
📅21/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Vitoria vs Juventude Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
25%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.67
Over 2.5
41%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.69
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.36
6+ Goals
9%
22.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.69 — our 34% vs market 31.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.71
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.9
X/1
16%
4.25
X/2
10%
7.6
X/X
17%
4.1
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
9%
6.13
2/X
6%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-3.6pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.9pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+0.6pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.1pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.0pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vitoria v Juventude — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Juventude EU Bookmakers 28%
+1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +2%
1.61/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.07
+11% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +13%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
370 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 77%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
20.0 Crosses 18.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0

Vitoria vs Juventude Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Juventude
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.81 xG 0.84
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
349 Passes 379
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
12.06.2024 Juventude Juventude 1-1 HT 1-1 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
30.10.2023 Vitoria Vitoria 0-0 HT 0-0 Juventude Juventude BR2
02.07.2023 Juventude Juventude 1-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR2
16.12.2020 Vitoria Vitoria 1-0 HT 1-0 Juventude Juventude BR2
15.09.2020 Juventude Juventude 1-1 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR2
16.04.2009 Vitoria Vitoria 1-1 HT 0-1 Juventude Juventude BRK

Vitoria 1-0 Juventude — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria
1-0
AWAY Juventude
1.11 xG 0.90
36% Ball Possession 64%
13 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
197 Passes 404
74% Pass Accuracy 86%
12 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Vitoria vs Juventude
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria squeezed past Juventude 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Vitoria as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Vitoria had 36% of the ball to Juventude's 64%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.11 to 0.90.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Vitoria and 0.67 for Juventude.

What was the final score of Vitoria vs Juventude?

Vitoria 1-0 Juventude in the Brazil - Serie A on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria vs Juventude?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Vitoria 44%, draw 31%, Juventude 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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