Barry Town 1-1 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.89
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.23
Over 2.5
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.55
No
50%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.53
2-3 Goals
38%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
2.9
6+ Goals
13%
8.36
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-3.8pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.3pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+4.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-10.1pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barry Town EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 30%
-2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / -1%
1.65/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/1.71
+5% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +52% / -14%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
335 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barry Town
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
19.11.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-3 HT 2-1 Barry Town Barry Town GAL
30.09.2023 Barry Town Barry Town 0-3 HT 0-2 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
26.02.2022 Barry Town Barry Town 1-2 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
30.10.2021 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-2 HT 0-2 Barry Town Barry Town GAL
22.05.2021 Barry Town Barry Town 1-3 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
15.05.2021 Barry Town Barry Town 3-2 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
POST-MATCH Barry Town vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barry Town and Caernarfon Town couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Barry Town at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Barry Town and 2.17 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of Barry Town vs Caernarfon Town?

Barry Town 1-1 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - Premier League on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barry Town vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barry Town win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Barry Town 45%, draw 24%, Caernarfon Town 31%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Barry Town) ✗ Over 2.5
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