Cardiff MU 2-1 Connahs Quay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
39%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.35
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.53
6+ Goals
11%
13.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
10%
X/2
17%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
34%
-1.9pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.6pp
39%
Away Win
39%
+0.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.7pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cardiff MU EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Connahs Quay EU Bookmakers 43%
+11% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +1%
1.29/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/0.50
+2% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +121%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
309 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cardiff MU
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Connahs Quay
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
36% Ball Possession 64%
4 Total Shots 12
0 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 1
06.04.2024 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 0-3 HT 0-2 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
24.02.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 2-1 HT 1-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
04.11.2023 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 3-1 HT 2-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
16.09.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 4-0 HT 2-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
08.04.2023 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 0-2 HT 0-2 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
25.02.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 2-1 HT 1-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
POST-MATCH Cardiff MU vs Connahs Quay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cardiff MU nicked a narrow win over Connahs Quay 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (32% / 29% / 39%) promised a tight game; Cardiff MU found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Connahs Quay led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Cardiff MU and 2.33 for Connahs Quay.

What was the final score of Cardiff MU vs Connahs Quay?

Cardiff MU 2-1 Connahs Quay in the Wales - Premier League on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cardiff MU vs Connahs Quay?

Before kick-off our model rated an Connahs Quay win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Cardiff MU 32%, draw 29%, Connahs Quay 39%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Connahs Quay) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Connahs Quay) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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