Fenerbahçe 1-3 Galatasaray — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.03
Over 2.5
46%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.97
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.13
6+ Goals
11%
10.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.97 — our 29% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.01
1/2
5%
31.0
1/X
11%
12.05
X/1
11%
5.15
X/2
16%
6.81
X/X
12%
4.81
2/1
9%
24.85
2/2
8%
4.49
2/X
7%
12.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-3.3pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.2pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
45%
+8.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
55%
-8.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.9pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Galatasaray EU Bookmakers 33%
-7% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -4%
1.61/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.48
-20% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +16%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
324 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 82%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
22.7 Crosses 15.3
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fenerbahçe
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Galatasaray
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.82 xG 1.07
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
269 Passes 304
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 4
19.05.2024 Galatasaray Galatasaray 0-1 HT 0-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
24.12.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 0-0 HT 0-0 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
04.06.2023 Galatasaray Galatasaray 3-0 HT 1-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
08.01.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 0-3 HT 0-1 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
10.04.2022 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 2-0 HT 1-0 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
21.11.2021 Galatasaray Galatasaray 1-2 HT 1-1 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fenerbahçe
1-3
AWAY Galatasaray
3.00 xG 1.39
56% Ball Possession 44%
25 Total Shots 14
10 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 2
339 Passes 268
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
42 Box Touches 22
29 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Galatasaray beat Fenerbahçe 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 30%) promised a tight game; Galatasaray found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Fenerbahçe had 56% of the ball to Galatasaray's 44%, shots finished 25-14, expected goals 3.00 to 1.39 — on chances, Fenerbahçe could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fenerbahçe had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.17 for Galatasaray.

What was the final score of Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray?

Fenerbahçe 1-3 Galatasaray in the Turkey - Super League on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Fenerbahçe 40%, draw 30%, Galatasaray 30%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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