Sunderland 1-1 Aston Villa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 21 Sep 2025

Sunderland
1-1 HT 0-0
Aston Villa
📅21/09/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2025/2026

Sunderland vs Aston Villa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.08
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.75
Over 2.5
48%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.82
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
18%
3.79
6+ Goals
9%
17.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.82 — our 32% vs market 28.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
5.87
1/2
14%
26.0
1/X
6%
14.3
X/1
15%
7.46
X/2
18%
4.5
X/X
12%
4.36
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
9%
2.69
2/X
9%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
29%
+3.9pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.5pp
41%
Away Win
43%
-2.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
53%
-0.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
47%
+0.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.3pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sunderland v Aston Villa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sunderland EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 48%
+6% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -6%
1.18/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.06
+55% / +76% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -5%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
290 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 78%
15.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.4
17.7 Crosses 19.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2

Sunderland vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sunderland
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Aston Villa
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.48 xG 1.54
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
346 Passes 396
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
06.03.2018 Sunderland Sunderland 0-3 HT 0-2 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNCL
21.11.2017 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-1 HT 1-0 Sunderland Sunderland İNCL
02.01.2016 Sunderland Sunderland 3-1 HT 1-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
29.08.2015 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-2 HT 2-1 Sunderland Sunderland İNP
14.03.2015 Sunderland Sunderland 0-4 HT 0-4 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
28.12.2014 Aston Villa Aston Villa 0-0 HT 0-0 Sunderland Sunderland İNP

Sunderland 1-1 Aston Villa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sunderland
1-1
AWAY Aston Villa
29% Ball Possession 71%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
151 Passes 488
69% Pass Accuracy 89%
POST-MATCH Sunderland vs Aston Villa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sunderland and Aston Villa shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Aston Villa at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Sunderland had 29% of the ball to Aston Villa's 71%, shots finished 14-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sunderland and 2.00 for Aston Villa.

What was the final score of Sunderland vs Aston Villa?

Sunderland 1-1 Aston Villa in the England - Premier League on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sunderland vs Aston Villa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Sunderland 33%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 41%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Aston Villa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✓ Under 2.5
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