Umm Salal 2-1 Al Sailiya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Qatar League, 21 Sep 2025

📅21/09/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.21
Over 2.5
47%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.53
No
47%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.11
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
2.78
6+ Goals
10%
8.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.11 — our 30% vs market 17.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
10%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
43%
-2.4pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.5pp
32%
Away Win
32%
+0.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
61%
-8.6pp
47%
BTTS No
39%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Umm Salal EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Sailiya EU Bookmakers 36%
-9% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -10%
1.42/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.20
-19% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +44%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
262 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 79%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.4 Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Umm Salal
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Al Sailiya
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.75 xG 0.57
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
258 Passes 315
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 13
13 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.02.2023 Al Sailiya Al Sailiya 1-1 HT 1-1 Umm Salal Umm Salal KAT
14.10.2022 Umm Salal Umm Salal 1-1 HT 1-1 Al Sailiya Al Sailiya KATYK
24.08.2022 Umm Salal Umm Salal 1-0 HT 1-0 Al Sailiya Al Sailiya KAT
19.02.2022 Umm Salal Umm Salal 0-1 HT 0-0 Al Sailiya Al Sailiya KAT
31.10.2021 Al Sailiya Al Sailiya 0-0 HT 0-0 Umm Salal Umm Salal KAT
07.04.2021 Umm Salal Umm Salal 1-0 HT 0-0 Al Sailiya Al Sailiya KAT
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Umm Salal
2-1
AWAY Al Sailiya
2.07 xG 3.16
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 23
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 8
227 Passes 302
71% Pass Accuracy 79%
13 Box Touches 39
13 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Umm Salal vs Al Sailiya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Umm Salal squeezed past Al Sailiya 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Umm Salal as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Umm Salal had 45% of the ball to Al Sailiya's 55%, shots finished 10-23, expected goals 2.07 to 3.16 — the balance of chances actually favoured Al Sailiya.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Umm Salal had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Umm Salal and 0.50 for Al Sailiya.

What was the final score of Umm Salal vs Al Sailiya?

Umm Salal 2-1 Al Sailiya in the Qatar League on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Umm Salal vs Al Sailiya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Umm Salal win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Umm Salal 41%, draw 27%, Al Sailiya 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Umm Salal), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Umm Salal) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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