Tondela 0-0 Estrela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 21 Sep 2025

📅21/09/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.02
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
27%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.71
Over 2.5
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes OUR CALL
55%
1.85
No
45%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.75
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
3.9
6+ Goals
10%
18.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.84
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.05
X/1
15%
4.63
X/2
8%
7.13
X/X
11%
4.22
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
26.5
2/2
11%
5.54
2/X
7%
13.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-1.5pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.5pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
50%
+4.5pp
45%
BTTS No
50%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tondela EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela EU Bookmakers 30%
-6% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -3%
1.53/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.00
+10% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -47% / +39%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
297 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 78%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
21.2 Crosses 18.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tondela
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Estrela
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.48 xG 0.53
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
304 Passes 322
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.02.2023 Estrela Estrela 0-0 HT 0-0 Tondela Tondela POR2
05.09.2022 Tondela Tondela 1-1 HT 0-0 Estrela Estrela POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tondela
0-0
AWAY Estrela
1.15 xG 1.08
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
305 Passes 232
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
33 Box Touches 17
30 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tondela vs Estrela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tondela and Estrela fought out a 0-0 stalemate. Neither side could find a way through.

Our pre-match lean was Tondela at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tondela had 54% of the ball to Estrela's 46%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.15 to 1.08.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Tondela and 0.50 for Estrela.

What was the final score of Tondela vs Estrela?

Tondela 0-0 Estrela in the Portugal - Premier League on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tondela vs Estrela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tondela win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Tondela 44%, draw 29%, Estrela 27%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Tondela), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tondela) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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