Juventude 3-5 Palmeiras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 21 Oct 2024

Juventude
3-5 HT 1-2
Palmeiras
📅21/10/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Juventude vs Palmeiras Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.48
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
54%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.16
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.71
6+ Goals
9%
15.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 28% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
8.09
1/2
6%
24.85
1/X
6%
16.1
X/1
10%
9.95
X/2
16%
3.85
X/X
8%
4.87
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
31%
2.15
2/X
8%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
20%
+5.0pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.8pp
54%
Away Win
56%
-2.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.1pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Juventude v Palmeiras — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Juventude EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 60%
+14% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +12%
1.16/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/0.81
+27% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +120%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
296 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 81%
15.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
19.4 Crosses 21.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

Juventude vs Palmeiras Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Juventude
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Palmeiras
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.88 xG 1.86
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 9
239 Passes 431
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
24.06.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-1 HT 0-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
11.09.2022 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-1 HT 0-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
22.05.2022 Juventude Juventude 0-3 HT 0-2 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
04.10.2021 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-1 HT 1-1 Juventude Juventude BR1
17.06.2021 Juventude Juventude 0-3 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
02.11.2007 Palmeiras Palmeiras 0-1 HT 0-1 Juventude Juventude BR1

Juventude 3-5 Palmeiras — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Juventude
3-5
AWAY Palmeiras
2.22 xG 2.58
53% Ball Possession 47%
25 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 5
286 Passes 266
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 16
33 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Juventude vs Palmeiras
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras got the better of Juventude 5-3 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 5-3 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Juventude had 53% of the ball to Palmeiras's 47%, shots finished 25-14, expected goals 2.22 to 2.58.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Juventude and 2.00 for Palmeiras.

What was the final score of Juventude vs Palmeiras?

Juventude 3-5 Palmeiras in the Brazil - Serie A on 21/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Juventude vs Palmeiras?

Before kick-off our model rated an Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Juventude 24%, draw 22%, Palmeiras 54%. The final score 3-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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