Novi Pazar 3-4 FK Partizan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 21 Oct 2024

📅21/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.46
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
42%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.0
Over 2.5
47%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
20%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
26%
+4.6pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.3pp
42%
Away Win
50%
-8.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.9pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novi Pazar EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Partizan EU Bookmakers 54%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.31/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.24
+52% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -37%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
280 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 76%
16.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.1
18.9 Crosses 18.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novi Pazar
1W-0D-5L
AWAY FK Partizan
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.86 xG 1.52
44% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 8
273 Passes 372
72% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.04.2024 FK Partizan FK Partizan 2-0 HT 1-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
06.11.2023 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 0-1 HT 0-1 FK Partizan FK Partizan SIRP
08.05.2023 FK Partizan FK Partizan 2-0 HT 1-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
13.11.2022 FK Partizan FK Partizan 1-0 HT 0-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
29.07.2022 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 1-0 HT 1-0 FK Partizan FK Partizan SIRP
05.12.2021 FK Partizan FK Partizan 2-0 HT 0-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novi Pazar
3-4
AWAY FK Partizan
2.23 xG 2.39
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 8
9 Corners 3
418 Passes 441
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
25 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Novi Pazar vs FK Partizan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Partizan nicked a narrow win over Novi Pazar 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had FK Partizan as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Novi Pazar had 50% of the ball to FK Partizan's 50%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 2.23 to 2.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FK Partizan led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Novi Pazar and 1.33 for FK Partizan.

What was the final score of Novi Pazar vs FK Partizan?

Novi Pazar 3-4 FK Partizan in the Serbia - Super League on 21/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novi Pazar vs FK Partizan?

Before kick-off our model rated an FK Partizan win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Novi Pazar 30%, draw 28%, FK Partizan 42%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FK Partizan) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FK Partizan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →