Stevenage 5-2 Crystal Palace U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Futbol League Cup, 21 Oct 2025

📅21/10/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.49
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
18%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.51
Over 2.5
52%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
5.09
2-3 Goals
37%
1.95
4-5 Goals
25%
2.57
6+ Goals
11%
6.16
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.09 — our 27% vs market 14.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
62%
-4.1pp
24%
Draw
20%
+3.6pp
18%
Away Win
17%
+0.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
36%
+12.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
64%
-12.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.8pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stevenage EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Crystal Palace U21 EU Bookmakers 21%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.79/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.81
+25% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -22%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
363 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 67%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
22.9 Crosses 8.1
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stevenage
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Crystal Palace U21
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.56 xG 0.67
48% Ball Possession 52%
26 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
290 Passes 333
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
37 Box Touches 9
26 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 0
20.08.2024 Stevenage Stevenage 1-0 HT 1-0 Crystal Palace U21 Crystal Palace U21 İNTK
14.11.2023 Stevenage Stevenage 5-2 HT 3-2 Crystal Palace U21 Crystal Palace U21 İNTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stevenage
5-2
AWAY Crystal Palace U21
2.25 xG 0.70
57% Ball Possession 43%
21 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 2
405 Passes 296
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 9
21 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Stevenage vs Crystal Palace U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stevenage cruised past Crystal Palace U21 5-2. Half-time: 3-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Stevenage as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Stevenage had 57% of the ball to Crystal Palace U21's 43%, shots finished 21-8, expected goals 2.25 to 0.70.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Stevenage had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Stevenage and 1.00 for Crystal Palace U21.

What was the final score of Stevenage vs Crystal Palace U21?

Stevenage 5-2 Crystal Palace U21 in the England - Futbol League Cup on 21/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stevenage vs Crystal Palace U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stevenage win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Stevenage 58%, draw 24%, Crystal Palace U21 18%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stevenage), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Stevenage) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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