Osasuna 1-2 Athletic Bilbao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 21 Dec 2024

Osasuna
1-2 HT 1-1
Athletic Bilbao
📅21/12/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.5
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
45%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.54
Over 2.5
43%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.06
No
50%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.28
2-3 Goals
47%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
4.95
6+ Goals
8%
30.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
6.46
1/2
9%
31.5
1/X EV+ ✗
14%
15.3
X/1
10%
7.59
X/2
22%
4.22
X/X
6%
3.78
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
15%
2.84
2/X
8%
14.55
Value flag · 1/X at 15.3 — our 14% vs market 3.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
25%
+1.7pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.0pp
45%
Away Win
46%
-0.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
61%
-4.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
39%
+4.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.0pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Osasuna v Athletic Bilbao — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osasuna EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 50%
-8% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
0.94/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.18
-23% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +12%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
298 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 78%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
24.4 Crosses 19.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1

Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osasuna
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.64 xG 1.37
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 9
276 Passes 372
72% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.05.2024 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-2 HT 0-1 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
19.08.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 0-2 HT 0-2 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
25.05.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 2-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
04.04.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-1 HT 1-0 Osasuna Osasuna İSPK
01.03.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 1-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İSPK
09.01.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-0 HT 0-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1

Osasuna 1-2 Athletic Bilbao — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osasuna
1-2
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
0.60 xG 1.18
53% Ball Possession 47%
6 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 4
337 Passes 316
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
11 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Bilbao squeezed past Osasuna 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Athletic Bilbao as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Osasuna had 53% of the ball to Athletic Bilbao's 47%, shots finished 6-13, expected goals 0.60 to 1.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Osasuna had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Osasuna and 0.83 for Athletic Bilbao.

What was the final score of Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao?

Osasuna 1-2 Athletic Bilbao in the Spain - Primera Liga on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao?

Before kick-off our model rated an Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Osasuna 27%, draw 28%, Athletic Bilbao 45%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) ✗ Under 2.5
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