Athletic Bilbao 2-2 Osasuna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 11 May 2024

Athletic Bilbao
2-2 HT 0-1
Osasuna
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Athletic Bilbao vs Osasuna Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.45
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
20%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.86
Over 2.5
41%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.06
No
58%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.23
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.64
6+ Goals
8%
14.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.23 — our 31% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.8
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
18.85
X/1
16%
3.44
X/2
6%
13.5
X/X
13%
5.57
2/1
10%
24.85
2/2
9%
11.6
2/X
7%
19.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
65%
-11.1pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.9pp
20%
Away Win
14%
+6.1pp
59%
Under 2.5
50%
+8.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
50%
-8.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.6pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Athletic Bilbao v Osasuna — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Osasuna EU Bookmakers 17%
-7% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +8%
1.66/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.32
-11% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +15%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
415 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 74%
28.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
25.9 Crosses 18.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5

Athletic Bilbao vs Osasuna Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Athletic Bilbao
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Osasuna
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.33 xG 0.68
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
338 Passes 304
77% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 14
27 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.08.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 0-2 HT 0-2 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
25.05.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 2-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
04.04.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-1 HT 1-0 Osasuna Osasuna İSPK
01.03.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 1-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İSPK
09.01.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-0 HT 0-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
15.05.2022 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-0 HT 1-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1

Athletic Bilbao 2-2 Osasuna — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athletic Bilbao
2-2
AWAY Osasuna
67% Ball Possession 33%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 6
524 Passes 222
87% Pass Accuracy 74%
POST-MATCH Athletic Bilbao vs Osasuna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Bilbao and Osasuna couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Athletic Bilbao at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 67% of the ball to Osasuna's 33%, shots finished 15-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Athletic Bilbao and 0.67 for Osasuna.

What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs Osasuna?

Athletic Bilbao 2-2 Osasuna in the Spain - Primera Liga on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs Osasuna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 54%, draw 26%, Osasuna 20%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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