Villarreal 3-2 Sevilla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.96
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.43
2-3 Goals
42%
1.89
4-5 Goals
23%
2.93
6+ Goals
11%
8.62
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.43 — our 24% vs market 17.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.64
1/2
5%
32.0
1/X
8%
13.05
X/1
10%
4.72
X/2
12%
7.36
X/X
8%
5.47
2/1
8%
22.3
2/2
12%
4.9
2/X
8%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
47%
+0.4pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.3pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.9pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villarreal EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Sevilla EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +9%
1.86/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.25
+21% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +42%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
335 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 76%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
15.9 Crosses 18.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Villarreal
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Sevilla
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.74 xG 1.05
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
355 Passes 353
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.12.2023 Sevilla Sevilla 1-1 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
23.04.2023 Sevilla Sevilla 2-1 HT 1-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
18.09.2022 Villarreal Villarreal 1-1 HT 0-1 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
08.05.2022 Villarreal Villarreal 1-1 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
04.12.2021 Sevilla Sevilla 1-0 HT 1-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
16.05.2021 Villarreal Villarreal 4-0 HT 1-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Villarreal
3-2
AWAY Sevilla
3.33 xG 1.74
59% Ball Possession 41%
25 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 1
446 Passes 282
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
38 Box Touches 18
38 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Villarreal vs Sevilla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal squeezed past Sevilla 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Villarreal as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Villarreal had 59% of the ball to Sevilla's 41%, shots finished 25-8, expected goals 3.33 to 1.74 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Villarreal's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sevilla led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Villarreal and 1.00 for Sevilla.

What was the final score of Villarreal vs Sevilla?

Villarreal 3-2 Sevilla in the Spain - Primera Liga on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villarreal vs Sevilla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Villarreal win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Villarreal 47%, draw 23%, Sevilla 29%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Villarreal), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Villarreal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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