Tigres UANL 1-0 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 22 Jan 2024

📅22/01/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.71
Over 2.5
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.99
No
54%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.74
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
4.12
6+ Goals
10%
20.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.44
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
6%
14.8
X/1
15%
3.95
X/2
11%
8.28
X/X
11%
4.38
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
7%
6.82
2/X
9%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-4.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+4.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
46%
-0.5pp
54%
BTTS No
54%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tigres UANL EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 24%
-1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +10%
1.67/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.40
-2% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +21%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
354 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 74%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
23.6 Crosses 15.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tigres UANL
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Guadalajara
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.88 xG 1.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
381 Passes 294
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 18
26 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 4
29.10.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-4 HT 0-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
29.05.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-3 HT 2-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
26.05.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 0-0 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
26.02.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-2 HT 0-2 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
14.09.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-4 HT 0-2 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
13.02.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-3 HT 0-2 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tigres UANL
1-0
AWAY Guadalajara
0.44 xG 0.87
52% Ball Possession 48%
6 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 1
418 Passes 392
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 32
12 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tigres UANL nicked a narrow win over Guadalajara 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Tigres UANL as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Tigres UANL had 52% of the ball to Guadalajara's 48%, shots finished 6-16, expected goals 0.44 to 0.87 — the balance of chances actually favoured Guadalajara.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tigres UANL had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Tigres UANL and 1.00 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara?

Tigres UANL 1-0 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 22/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tigres UANL win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Tigres UANL 49%, draw 26%, Guadalajara 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tigres UANL), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tigres UANL) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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