Cerro Porteno 3-1 Sportivo Trinidense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 22 Jan 2024

📅22/01/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.49
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
26%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.15
Over 2.5
54%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
63%
-11.5pp
23%
Draw
21%
+1.6pp
26%
Away Win
16%
+9.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
43%
+3.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
57%
-3.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.7pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerro Porteno EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Sportivo Trinidense EU Bookmakers 20%
+0% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +29% / +29%
1.99/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.52
+7% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +82% / +13%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
312 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerro Porteno
4W-0D-0L
AWAY Sportivo Trinidense
3.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
25.10.2023 Sportivo Trinidense Sportivo Trinidense 2-5 HT 2-3 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno PAR
05.08.2023 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 4-1 HT 1-1 Sportivo Trinidense Sportivo Trinidense PAR
17.04.2023 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 3-2 HT 2-0 Sportivo Trinidense Sportivo Trinidense PAR
05.02.2023 Sportivo Trinidense Sportivo Trinidense 0-1 HT 0-1 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerro Porteno
3-1
AWAY Sportivo Trinidense
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 3
11 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Trinidense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro Porteno saw off Sportivo Trinidense 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Cerro Porteno as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Cerro Porteno had 59% of the ball to Sportivo Trinidense's 41%, shots finished 16-3.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Cerro Porteno had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 3.25 goals for Cerro Porteno and 1.25 for Sportivo Trinidense.

What was the final score of Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Trinidense?

Cerro Porteno 3-1 Sportivo Trinidense in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 22/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Trinidense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerro Porteno win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Cerro Porteno 51%, draw 23%, Sportivo Trinidense 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerro Porteno), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cerro Porteno) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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