Magesi 1-2 Mamelodi Sundowns — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Afrika - Premier League, 22 Jan 2025

📅22/01/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
16%
7.18
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
57%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.52
Over 2.5
38%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
34%
2.81
No
66%
1.38
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
39%
2.15
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
13%
5.1
6+ Goals
9%
32.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.15 — our 39% vs market 38.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
5%
X/2
18%
X/X
19%
2/1
5%
2/2
34%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
16%
Home Win
11%
+5.2pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.2pp
57%
Away Win
66%
-9.4pp
62%
Under 2.5
62%
+0.4pp
38%
Over 2.5
38%
-0.4pp
34%
BTTS Yes
32%
+2.3pp
66%
BTTS No
68%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Magesi EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 70%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / -4%
0.71/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.71/0.83
+51% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / +53%
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
252 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 461 · 84%
7.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.5
11.0 Crosses 14.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Magesi
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
27% Ball Possession 73%
4 Total Shots 21
2 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 4
23.11.2024 Magesi Magesi 2-1 HT 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Magesi
1-2
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns
0.40 xG 0.80
23% Ball Possession 77%
6 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 3
113 Passes 575
62% Pass Accuracy 89%
13 Box Touches 24
9 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Magesi vs Mamelodi Sundowns
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mamelodi Sundowns squeezed past Magesi 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Mamelodi Sundowns as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (66%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Magesi had 23% of the ball to Mamelodi Sundowns's 77%, shots finished 6-12, expected goals 0.40 to 0.80.

What was the final score of Magesi vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

Magesi 1-2 Mamelodi Sundowns in the South Afrika - Premier League on 22/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Magesi vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mamelodi Sundowns win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Magesi 16%, draw 27%, Mamelodi Sundowns 57%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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