Cimarrones de Sonora 4-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 22 Feb 2024

Cimarrones de Sonora
4-0 HT 3-0
Tepatitlán de Morelos
📅22/02/2024 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Mexico - Primera A – 2023/2024

Cimarrones de Sonora vs Tepatitlán de Morelos Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.82
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
24%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.73
No
44%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
8%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-5.2pp
30%
Draw
25%
+5.5pp
24%
Away Win
24%
-0.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.9pp
44%
BTTS No
46%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cimarrones de Sonora v Tepatitlán de Morelos — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cimarrones de Sonora EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 28%
-10% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -2%
1.53/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.63
-3% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -14%
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
320 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.3

Cimarrones de Sonora vs Tepatitlán de Morelos Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cimarrones de Sonora
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
23.07.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1 HT 0-0 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora MEK2
06.04.2023 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora 0-0 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
07.10.2022 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-2 HT 0-1 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora MEK2
13.04.2022 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora 2-0 HT 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
18.10.2021 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-3 HT 0-1 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora MEK2
02.05.2021 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora 1-4 HT 1-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
POST-MATCH Cimarrones de Sonora vs Tepatitlán de Morelos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cimarrones de Sonora ran out comfortable winners over Tepatitlán de Morelos 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Cimarrones de Sonora as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cimarrones de Sonora had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Cimarrones de Sonora and 0.83 for Tepatitlán de Morelos.

What was the final score of Cimarrones de Sonora vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Cimarrones de Sonora 4-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos in the Mexico - Primera A on 22/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cimarrones de Sonora vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cimarrones de Sonora win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Cimarrones de Sonora 46%, draw 30%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 24%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cimarrones de Sonora) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cimarrones de Sonora) ✗ BTTS Yes
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