Carolina Core 3-2 Northern Virginia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 22 Mar 2024

📅22/03/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.57
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
28%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.59
Over 2.5
56%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.5
No
46%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
59%
-7.3pp
20%
Draw
21%
-0.9pp
28%
Away Win
20%
+8.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
35%
+9.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
65%
-9.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
62%
-8.6pp
46%
BTTS No
38%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carolina Core EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Northern Virginia EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
398 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carolina Core
3-2
AWAY Northern Virginia
2.80 xG 1.15
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 4
258 Passes 258
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
POST-MATCH Carolina Core vs Northern Virginia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carolina Core edged past Northern Virginia 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Carolina Core as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Carolina Core had 51% of the ball to Northern Virginia's 49%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 2.80 to 1.15 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Carolina Core's control.

What was the final score of Carolina Core vs Northern Virginia?

Carolina Core 3-2 Northern Virginia in the USA - Open Cup on 22/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carolina Core vs Northern Virginia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carolina Core win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Carolina Core 52%, draw 20%, Northern Virginia 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Carolina Core), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Carolina Core) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ABDK More USA - Open Cup
22 Mar 2024
02:00 Steel City vs Michigan Stars Analysis →
02:30 Western Mass Pioneers vs Union Omaha Analysis →
02:30 Crown Legacy vs SC United Heat Analysis →
02:30 FC Motown vs New York City II Analysis →
02:30 Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Brockton Analysis →