Homburg 1-2 Stuttgart II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 22 Mar 2024

📅22/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.66
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
29%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.66
No
42%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
56%
-13.5pp
29%
Draw
23%
+5.7pp
29%
Away Win
21%
+7.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.8pp
58%
BTTS Yes
56%
+1.9pp
42%
BTTS No
44%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Homburg EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Stuttgart II EU Bookmakers 24%
-2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +18%
1.90/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.67
-3% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / +10%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
380 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Homburg
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Stuttgart II
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
16.09.2023 Stuttgart II Stuttgart II 1-8 HT 1-2 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
08.04.2023 Homburg Homburg 2-0 HT 0-0 Stuttgart II Stuttgart II ALMBÖL
01.10.2022 Stuttgart II Stuttgart II 0-0 HT 0-0 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
24.04.2022 Stuttgart II Stuttgart II 2-0 HT 1-0 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
31.10.2021 Homburg Homburg 0-0 HT 0-0 Stuttgart II Stuttgart II ALMBÖL
11.09.2020 Homburg Homburg 3-0 HT 1-0 Stuttgart II Stuttgart II ALMBÖL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Homburg
1-2
AWAY Stuttgart II
61% Ball Possession 39%
21 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Homburg vs Stuttgart II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stuttgart II nicked a narrow win over Homburg 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Homburg at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Homburg had 61% of the ball to Stuttgart II's 39%, shots finished 21-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Homburg had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Homburg and 0.50 for Stuttgart II.

What was the final score of Homburg vs Stuttgart II?

Homburg 1-2 Stuttgart II in the Germany - Regional League on 22/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Homburg vs Stuttgart II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Homburg win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Homburg 42%, draw 29%, Stuttgart II 29%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Homburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Homburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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