Middlesbrough U21 3-2 Newcastle United U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League 2 (League 1), 22 Mar 2024

📅22/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.8
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
3.59
Over
54%
1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
60%
1.32
No
40%
3.08
Total Goals
0-1
25%
2-3
35%
4-5
29%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
11%
1/X
9%
X/1
29%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
11%
2/2
10%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
51%
Home Win
51%
-0.7pp
21%
Draw
20%
+0.9pp
28%
Away Win
28%
-0.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
24%
+21.4pp
54%
Over 2.5
76%
-21.4pp
60%
BTTS Yes
72%
-11.8pp
40%
BTTS No
28%
+11.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Middlesbrough U21 The Market 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle United U21 The Market 32%
+38% / +38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -48% / -48%
3.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/2.00
+44% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / -8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
392 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 27.0
Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Middlesbrough U21
3-2
AWAY Newcastle United U21
1.77 xG 2.27
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
290 Passes 141
70% Pass Accuracy 53%
23 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Middlesbrough U21 vs Newcastle United U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Middlesbrough U21 squeezed past Newcastle United U21 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Middlesbrough U21 as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Middlesbrough U21 had 61% of the ball to Newcastle United U21's 39%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 1.77 to 2.27 — on chances, Newcastle United U21 could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Middlesbrough U21 vs Newcastle United U21?

Middlesbrough U21 3-2 Newcastle United U21 in the England - Premier League 2 (League 1) on 22/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Middlesbrough U21 vs Newcastle United U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a Middlesbrough U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Middlesbrough U21 51%, draw 21%, Newcastle United U21 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Middlesbrough U21), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Middlesbrough U21) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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