CD Aguilas 1-0 Xerez — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 22 Mar 2025

📅22/03/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.33
Draw
35%
2.63
Away
30%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
70%
Over 2.5
30%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
2.67
No
65%
1.41
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
46%
2-3 Goals
32%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
4%
X/X
20%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 70%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
39%
-4.6pp
35%
Draw
35%
+0.4pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.2pp
35%
BTTS Yes
33%
+1.5pp
65%
BTTS No
67%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CD Aguilas EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Xerez EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
0.81/0.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/0.61
-33% / +92% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +97%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
469 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 233 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CD Aguilas
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Xerez
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 0
4 Yellow Cards 1
10.11.2024 Xerez Xerez 1-0 HT 1-0 CD Aguilas CD Aguilas İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CD Aguilas
1-0
AWAY Xerez
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH CD Aguilas vs Xerez
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CD Aguilas edged past Xerez 1-0.

Our pre-match split (35% / 35% / 30%) promised a tight game; CD Aguilas found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (70%), no to both teams scoring (65%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, CD Aguilas had 40% of the ball to Xerez's 60%, shots finished 10-15.

What was the final score of CD Aguilas vs Xerez?

CD Aguilas 1-0 Xerez in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 22/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CD Aguilas vs Xerez?

Before kick-off our model rated a CD Aguilas win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split CD Aguilas 35%, draw 35%, Xerez 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/35/30) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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