22/03/2025
·
20:45
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
2-0
Azerbaycan vs Haiti Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.92
— our 30% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 55% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
43%
31%
Draw
27%
24%
Away Win
30%
55%
Under 2.5
52%
45%
Over 2.5
48%
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
47%
BTTS No
47%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Azerbaycan v Haiti — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Azerbaycan
EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY
Haiti
EU Bookmakers 33%
+25% /
+25%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-42% /
-42%
2.32/1.41
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.43/2.64
+43%
/
-15%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-66%
/
-43%
49%
Ball Possession
51%
11
Total Shots
10
4
Shots on Target
4
5
Corners
5
333 · 80%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
440 · 83%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
5.0
–
Crosses
4.0
0.0
Yellow Cards
2.0
POST-MATCH
Azerbaycan vs Haiti
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Haiti swept aside Azerbaycan 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.
Our pre-match lean was Azerbaycan at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Azerbaycan vs Haiti?
Azerbaycan 0-3 Haiti in the Friendlies on 22/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Azerbaycan vs Haiti?
Before kick-off our model rated a Azerbaycan win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Azerbaycan 45%, draw 31%, Haiti 24%. The final score 0-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.
✗ Match Result (Azerbaycan)
✗ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced?
Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself?
Open Match Studio →
HAZ
More Friendlies
22 Mar 2025