Lüksemburg 1-0 İsveç — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 22 Mar 2025

📅22/03/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.65
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
50%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.97
Over 2.5
45%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.57
2-3 Goals
45%
1.83
4-5 Goals
17%
3.41
6+ Goals
7%
12.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.57 — our 31% vs market 23.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
8.85
1/2
8%
22.55
1/X
5%
17.45
X/1
11%
10.7
X/2
12%
4.0
X/X
12%
5.54
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
30%
1.99
2/X
7%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
18%
+6.9pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.5pp
50%
Away Win
58%
-8.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
47%
+7.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
53%
-7.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.2pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lüksemburg EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY İsveç EU Bookmakers 62%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +26% / +26%
0.90/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/1.00
-27% / +99% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +12%
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
282 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 82%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.0 Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lüksemburg
0W-0D-2L
AWAY İsveç
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.50
0.25 xG 3.66
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 25
2 Shots on Target 12
3 Corners 8
228 Passes 436
73% Pass Accuracy 86%
10 Box Touches 29
16 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 0
07.10.2017 İsveç İsveç 8-0 HT 3-0 Lüksemburg Lüksemburg DKE
07.10.2016 Lüksemburg Lüksemburg 0-1 HT 0-0 İsveç İsveç DKE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lüksemburg
1-0
AWAY İsveç
1.00 xG 1.08
29% Ball Possession 71%
13 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 8
189 Passes 574
71% Pass Accuracy 88%
16 Box Touches 45
7 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lüksemburg vs İsveç
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lüksemburg squeezed past İsveç 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was İsveç at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Lüksemburg had 29% of the ball to İsveç's 71%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 1.00 to 1.08.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, İsveç led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Lüksemburg and 4.50 for İsveç.

What was the final score of Lüksemburg vs İsveç?

Lüksemburg 1-0 İsveç in the Friendlies on 22/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lüksemburg vs İsveç?

Before kick-off our model rated an İsveç win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Lüksemburg 25%, draw 25%, İsveç 50%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (İsveç) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (İsveç) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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